THE STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL
JANUARY, 2009
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following
are key findings from The State House News Poll, a telephone poll conducted
among 400 registered voters living in
The lead findings:
1. GOV. PATRICK AFTER TWO YEARS IN OFFICE
After two years in office, the good news for Governor Deval Patrick is that a strong majority of voters continue to view him favorably personally; his favorable rating in our polling is higher than at any point since he first took office in January, 2007. Yet as has been the case for much of his term in office, his job performance numbers lag behind his personal popularity, implying that while respondents, especially women, like him personally, they are not so keen on the job he has done in office thus far.
Statewide personal popularity: FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
Patrick: Now 60% 29%
January, 2008 50% 30%
September, 2007 57% 28%
April, 2007 49% 31%
November, 2006 56% 28%
September, 2006 47% 12%
July, 2006 35% 11%
May, 2006 20% 12%
March, 2006 14% 5%
January, 2006 14% 4%
July, 2005 11% 3%
May, 2005 7% 3%
Job rating: EXC/ABOVE AVE AVERAGE BELOW AVE/POOR
Patrick: Now 41% 21% 37%
1/08 45% 10% 40%
9/07 40% 16% 40%
4/07 31% 14% 45%
Mixed reaction toward the job Patrick is doing as governor is unsurprising when considering that, when asked whether his performance is better than expected or worse than expected or about what had been expected, fully 68% responded that his performance is about what was expected, while 18% say it is worse than expected and 12% say it is better than expected.
As for Patrick’s future as governor, 71% of respondents say that they believe him when he says he will serve out his first term and then run for re-election, while 22% do not believe him. His prospects for re-election seem to depend on his performance over the second half of his term; 49% say that they would vote for him now if he decides to run for re-election while 30% say they would vote against him. The 19% margin in his favor portends likely re-election success but the fact that fewer than 50% express support is problematic for him.
2. THE FISCAL CRISIS
Given that the overwhelming percentage of voters (80%) cite fiscal issues as the most important facing Massachusetts today – 35% cite the economy in general, 22% cite unemployment, 15% cite the state budget deficit, and 8% cite taxes – it is no surprise that the majority of voters think things in Massachusetts are seriously of on the wrong track (51%) as opposed to generally going in the right direction (33%).
RIGHT
DIRECTION WRONG TRACK
Now 33% 51%
January, 2008 41% 46%
September, 2007 41% 41%
April, 2007 39% 49%
November, 2006 33% 58%
September, 2006 35% 48%
May, 2006 34% 49%
January, 2006 41% 49%
November, 2005 48% 42%
September, 2005 48% 39%
July, 2005 48% 42%
May, 2005 43% 45%
March, 2005 46% 39%
Considering the impact on their personal finances being felt by voters, public opinion favors erasing the state budget deficit entirely through reductions in programs and services (46%) rather than through paying higher taxes (33%).
Thus far, Governor Patrick is not seen as being up to the challenge posed by the state budget deficit – only 35% say that the job he is doing managing the state budget is excellent (3%) or above average (32%) while 41% say the job he is doing is below average (29%) or poor (12%).
One
possibility that voters think the governor should embrace is trying again to
win passage of legislation legalizing casino gambling in
3. THE LEGISLATURE
Polling was
conducted before Sal DiMasi announced his decision to
resign as Speaker of the Massachusetts House but clearly that announcement was
greeted positively by the state’s voters.
When asked in the days leading up to DiMasi’s
announcement whether they thought he should continue to serve or resign, the
majority of 53% favored resignation, while only 18% favored his continuing
service. That finding comes as no
surprise given DiMasi’s favorable/unfavorable
ratings: only 9% of
Far less known is State Senate President Therese Murray: 16% view her favorably, 6% view her unfavorably.
4. PRESIDENT OBAMA
As President Barack Obama took office, his
favorable rating among