State
House News Service
April 6, 2007 www.statehousenews.com
Eds Note:
Pollster Gerry Chervinsky is available today at 617-332-5006
Full poll data
at www.statehousenewspoll.com
BAY STATERS
HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON PATRICK, POLL FINDS; CLINTON, OBAMA TIED HERE
By Craig Sandler
STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE
STATE HOUSE,
At the same time, there’s no question Patrick’s
start has been slower than expected for a leaders whose ads featured him
saying, “Let’s get to work.” About 40 percent of respondents said he’s
accomplished less than they expected.
The scientific public opinion survey also found
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied, and John Edwards running a
noticeably strong third, in an early sampling of Massachusetts Democrats on
next year’s presidential primary.
“The Edwards surge is mostly among Independents,
which I would question - it may not be
statistically significant,” said State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky, a
20-year veteran of sampling public opinion in
More than 79 percent of those polled said they have not personally given up on the governor, who made his plea March 7, after news broke of his call to colleagues at Citigroup on behalf of the subprime lender Ameriquest. This story came on top of reports about his choice of a Cadillac as his official vehicle, his spending significant quantities of tax dollars on decorating his office and hiring a scheduler for his wife, and using a helicopter for official travel.
At that point, the governor looked in real danger of losing his ability to drive the agenda at the State House and statewide. But generally, the punditry believed he had time to recover. Chervinsky agreed but went farther, saying the poll numbers indicate Patrick’s image problem was never that bad. “All this media focus on the symbolic is really an insider-y, media-driven story that the state really isn’t buying,,” Chervinsky said.
While they are not monolithically unhappy with
Patrick’s performance, respondents in this poll are solidly dissatisfied with
the general state of things in
Respondents were given the chance to tell the
pollster what issue Patrick should work on first, and chose education, taxes
and the economy as the top three.
Perhaps the highest-visibility issue now occupying the attention of
state government, health care costs, was listed as the most important issue by
only 10.7 percent of those polled. The
other big issue of the day at the State House, energy policy, didn’t even
register on the list.
There’s no question the stories about the Cadillac,
the drapes and the Ameriquest call have taken their toll: 44 percent of those
polled said the stories have changed their opinion of Patrick for the
worse. Almost no one said he’s
accomplished more than they expected as he approaches the 100-day mark April
13, and 40 percent said he’s gotten less done.
Yet 52 percent of respondents said the stories had
no impact on their view of the chief executive, and his negatives, while
definitely higher than during campaign season, are not as high as one might
expect: 49 percent of those polled viewed him favorably, while 31 percent reported
an “unfavorable” or “extremely unfavorable” opinion of him.
And residents reported a reasonable level of support
for the governor both for his plan to close business tax loopholes, which the
business community and legislative leaders have labeled a massive tax hike, and
his handling of the controversial illegal-immigrant raid on a New Bedford
leather factory last month. The
governor’s plan was approved by 40 percent of those asked, as opposed to 36
percent who opposed it, and his handling of the immigration raid was approved
of by 40 percent of respondents, compared to just 27 percent who disapproved.
On the raid itself, 51 percent of those polled said
they disapproved of the way federal agents handled the situation. About 36 percent said the approved of the way
the raid was conducted.
Other key findings of the survey, which polled 400
-- Gender
gaps. On balancing the budget, men were
far more likely than women to favor cuts in services over tax increases on
business – 43 percent of the men said cuts would be their first choice,
compared to 20 percent of women. And on
another big recent item, the roundup of illegal immigrants at a
-- Once again, the poll found that if the gay
marriage question were put to the people today, they would reject a ban on
single-sex marriage and vote to continue
-- As they’ve done in other SHNPolls, respondents said they approve legalizing casino gambling, a possibility very much in play as Patrick and the Legislature ponder what mix of revenues might be brought to bear on this fiscal year’s $1.2 billion gap between projected income and proposed spending. That question broke 55-39 percent in favor of legalization of more gambling.
Chervinsky was careful to
caution that one poll is simply a snapshot of a particular moment, and any given poll carries
the risk of being way off. Other
surveys sure to come as Patrick crosses the 100-day marker will provide a
richer picture of his status with the citizenry. But taking these results with the necessary
grain of salt, Chervinsky said the poll provides evidence that “They’re giving
Patrick the benefit of the doubt. I
expected that they’d be looking at him with a more critical eye. But they’re not looking at him with that
critical an eye.”
- END