THE STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL
APRIL, 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following are key findings from The State House News Poll, a telephone poll conducted among 400 adults living in Massachusetts by KRC/Communications Research for The State House News Service. The poll was conducted April 1-3, 2007, using standard random-digit-dialing techniques, and carries an overall margin of error of +/-4.8%, with a margin of error of +/-5.0% for the subset of 369 registered voters, and a margin of error of +/-6.1% for the subset of 246 likely Democratic primary voters.
The lead findings:
1. GOVERNOR PATRICK’S FIRST ONE HUNDRED DAYS:
MIXED REVIEWS BUT STATE NOT GIVING UP YET
A series of questions designed to elicit reaction to Deval Patrick’s first one hundred days as governor yields mixed reviews: on the one hand, negative news stories have brought his personal popularity down somewhat and more people think he’s doing a bad job than think he’s doing a good job. On the other hand, the majority says Patrick has accomplished about as much as they had expected in his first one hundred days in office, and the vast majority say that they have not given up on him.
Statewide personal popularity: FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
Patrick: Now 49% 31%
November, 2006 56% 28%
September, 2006 47% 12%
July, 2006 35% 11%
May, 2006 20% 12%
March, 2006 14% 5%
January, 2006 14% 4%
July, 2005 11% 3%
May, 2005 7% 3%
Job rating: EXC/ABOVE AVE AVERAGE BELOW AVE/POOR
Patrick: Now 31% 14% 45%
Impact of news stories about Patrick leasing a Cadillac, replacing his
office drapes, and hiring an aide for his wife:
More positive toward Patrick: 3%
More negative toward Patrick: 44%
No impact on opinion of Patrick: 52%
After he recently apologized for early mistakes and asked citizens not to give up on him, do you personally feel that you've given up on Deval Patrick in terms of his ability to serve productively and effectively as governor, or not:
Yes, given up: 17%
No, not given up: 79%
Patrick has accomplished:
More than expected 3%
Less than expected 40%
About as much as expected: 52%
2. GOVERNOR PATRICK AND CLOSING THE STATE BUDGET DEFICIT
There is no clear consensus concerning how to close the state budget deficit, and there is certainly no groundswell of support for balancing the budget on the backs of businesses.
When asked what they think should be the first tactic employed to balance the state budget, tax increases on businesses, or tax increases on individuals, or cuts to state services, responses were almost evenly divided between business tax increases and state service cuts, fueled by a strong gender gap:
Total Men Women
Tax increases on businesses 36% 27% 43%
Cuts to state services 31% 44% 20%
Tax increases on individuals 7% 7% 7%
Combination of above 8% 9% 7%
The plurality of 40% support Governor Patrick’s plan to close business tax loopholes, while 36% oppose that plan.
3. GOVERNOR PATRICK AND THE NEW BEDFORD RAID ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS
The majority of 51% of respondents disapproved of the conduct of the raid on a New Bedford leather factory by federal immigration agents earlier this month, while 36% approved. Men (48% approve, 41% disapprove) were far more supportive of the conduct of the raid than women (24% approve, 60% disapprove).
The plurality of 40% approved of the way Governor Patrick responded to the raid, as opposed to 27% who did not, and 33% who had no opinion concerning the governor’s response.
4. ROMNEY ON THE REBOUND?
Whether Massachusetts residents are feeling more positively toward Mitt Romney as they observe his presidential campaign, or whether it’s simply a case of “out of sight, out of mind,” the former governor’s personal popularity rates better than it has since last spring:
Statewide personal popularity: FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
Romney: Now 45% 47%
November, 2006 37% 52%
March, 2006 53% 37%
January, 2006 53% 39%
November, 2005 47% 43%
September, 2005 54% 37%
July, 2005 55% 37%
May, 2005 52% 34%
March, 2005 55% 41%
5. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY TRIAL HEAT
Hillary Clinton maintains a small, statistically insignificant advantage over Barak Obama in our first state Democratic presidential primary trial heat, on the strength of her strong support among women, older voters, and registered Democrats. John Edwards polls surprisingly well, based principally on his strength among independents:
Head-to-head Total Men Women 18-39 40-64 65+ Dem Ind
Hillary Clinton 28% 22% 35% 24% 25% 44% 37% 20%
Barak Obama 22% 24% 20% 26% 23% 13% 21% 22%
John Edwards 17% 18% 17% 13% 20% 11% 9% 25%
Joe Biden 5% 7% 4% 5% 5% 4% 8% 3%
Bill Richardson 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 0% 5% 3%
Dennis Kucinich 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Chris Dodd 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
6. OPPOSITION TO BAN ON GAY MARRIAGE
When asked how they would vote if a question appeared on the ballot that would prohibit marriage between two men or two women, the majority of 57% (down from 63% in November, 2006) said they would vote against such a question, while 38% (up from 31% in November, 2006) said they would support it. There were no statistically significant demographic differences, and even a majority of Republicans said that they would vote against a ban on gay marriage.
7. SUPPORT FOR CASINO GAMBLING
The majority of 55% said that they would support the legalization of casino gambling in Massachusetts, while 39% would oppose it.
8. OPTIMISM THAT THIS IS THE YEAR FOR THE RED SOX
The majority of 57% said that they think the Red Sox will win the World Series this year, while only 33% said that the Sox won’t be hoisting another championship trophy when the season concludes.
9. MASSACHUSETTS IN GENERAL
The plurality of respondents still believes that the state is seriously off on the wrong track:
RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK
Now 39% 49%
November, 2006 33% 58%
September, 2006 35% 48%
May, 2006 34% 49%
January, 2006 41% 49%
November, 2005 48% 42%
September, 2005 48% 39%
July, 2005 48% 42%
May, 2005 43% 45%
March, 2005 46% 39%
Most important issue:
NOW NOV., 2006 JULY, 2006 JAN., 2006 JULY, 2005 MAY, 2005 MAR., 2005
Education 20% 14% 14% 15% 12% 12% 19%
Taxes 15% 14% 19% 15% 15% 16% 14%