THE STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL

                         JANUARY, 2008

                       EXECUTIVE SUMMARY       

 

     The following are key findings from The State House News Poll, a telephone poll conducted among 400 adults living in Massachusetts by KRC/Communications Research for The State House News Service. The poll was conducted January 9-12, 2008, using standard random-digit-dialing techniques, and carries an overall margin of error of +/-4.8%, with a margin of error of +/-6.2% for the subset of 244 likely Democratic primary voters.

 

The lead findings:

 

1.  PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: DEMOCRATS

 

     Hillary Clinton’s edge over Barak Obama has narrowed but she still maintains a statistically significant advantage in the first post-NH Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary trial heat. Clinton leads on the strength of her strong support among women, registered Democrats, older, and lesser-educated voters:

 

NOW              TOTAL  MEN  WOMEN 18-39 40-64  65+   HS    COL   PG   DEM   IND  

 

Hillary Clinton   37%   26%   44%   29%   36%   45%   44%   37%  27%   47%   27%

Barak Obama       25%   34%   20%   36%   24%   21%   19%   23%  40%   20%   31%

John Edwards      14%   20%   11%   18%   16%    8%    9%   16%  15%   13%   16%

Undecided         11%    7%   14%    7%   11%   15%   16%   10%  10%   12%   11%

 

PREVIOUS             9/07  4/07

 

Hillary Clinton       34%   28%  

Barak Obama           16%   12% 

John Edwards           9%   17%

 

2.  PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: REPUBLICANS

 

     When respondents are asked to name the Republican candidate they would prefer to see in the White House if they knew the Republican would win, John McCain is the overwhelming candidate of choice among Democrats and Independents, while state Republicans maintain loyalty to Mitt Romney:

 

Now                  Total  Dem   Ind   GOP  

 

John McCain           45%   55%   47%   20%  

Mitt Romney           18%   10%   20%   38%

Rudy Giuliani          8%    6%    7%   10%

Mike Huckabee          8%    7%    7%   13%

Ron Paul               4%    4%    4%    8%

Fred Thompson          2%    2%    2%    2%

Undecided             10%    9%    9%   10%

3.  GOV. PATRICK AFTER ONE YEAR IN OFFICE

 

     After one year in office, the good news for Governor Deval Patrick is that a majority of voters continue to view him favorably, while for the first time in our polling, more people approve of the job he is doing than disapprove.  Yet as noted in September, even though his job performance numbers continue to improve, they still lag behind his personal popularity, implying that while respondents, especially women, like him personally, they are not so keen on the job he has done in office thus far.  In fact, the large gender gap in his job rating remains, with women far more supportive toward the Patrick administration than men.

 

Statewide personal popularity:            FAVORABLE     UNFAVORABLE

 

Patrick:  Now                                50%            30%

          September, 2007                    57%            28%

          April, 2007                        49%            31%

          November, 2006                     56%            28%

          September, 2006                    47%            12%

          July, 2006                         35%            11%

          May, 2006                          20%            12%

          March, 2006                        14%             5%

          January, 2006                      14%             4%

          July, 2005                         11%             3%

          May, 2005                           7%             3%

 

Job rating:            EXC/ABOVE AVE       AVERAGE     BELOW AVE/POOR

 

Patrick:     Now (All)       45%             10%            40%

                 (Men)       43%             10%            42%

                 (Women)     46%             11%            38%

             9/07(All)       40%             16%            40%

             4/07(All)       31%             14%            45%

 

How would you rate the job Deval Patrick did during his just-completed first year as governor:

 

1st year job rating:   EXC/ABOVE AVE       AVERAGE     BELOW AVE/POOR

 

Patrick:     Now (All)       45%             10%            40%

 

How would you rate the job Deval Patrick is doing at keeping his campaign

promise to provide property tax relief to homeowners?

 

Prop tax job rating:   EXC/ABOVE AVE       AVERAGE     BELOW AVE/POOR

 

Patrick:     Now (All)       17%              4%            67%

 

In his first year as governor, did Deval Patrick accomplish (ROTATE):

 

                 more than you expected       5%

                 about what you expected     48%

                 less than you expected      41%

4.  CASINO GAMBLING

 

     When asked whether they “support or oppose Governor Patrick’s plan to legalize casino gambling in Massachusetts” fewer than half the state, 49%, supports the proposal, while 44% is opposed.  That’s down from the 50% support/39% oppose margin that we found in our September poll:

 

CASINO GAMBLING       NOW  9/07  

 

Support               49%   50%  

Oppose                44%   39%

 

     Yet even though support appears to be waning somewhat for Governor Patrick’s casino gambling proposal, voters appear to believe that Patrick will be hard-pressed to make good on his campaign promise to provide property tax relief without it: 

 

PROVIDE PROP TAX RELIEF WITHOUT CASINO GAMLBING       

 

Will be unable to provide   52%  

Will find another way       39%

 

5.  INCOME TAX REPEAL BALLOT QUESTION TRIAL HEAT RUNS EVEN

 

If there were a question on the ballot in the general election in November

that, if approved, would repeal the state income tax in Massachusetts,

would you vote (ROTATE): “yes” to repeal the state income tax, or

                          “no” to retain the state income tax?

 

                 TOTAL  MEN  WOMEN  HS    COL   PG   DEM   IND    REP  

 

NO                46%   43%   49%   31%   48%   59%   59%   44%   33%

YES               45%   49%   41%   56%   44%   36%   36%   45%   58%

Undecided          8%    8%    9%   13%    8%    4%    4%   10%   10%

 

6.  FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS, MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE:  THE ECONOMY

 

     The issues of “taxes” and “education” have been surpassed by “the economy” for the first time in our polling:

 

SELF-IDENTIFIED MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE       

 

The economy           20%  

Taxes                 15%

Education             13%  

Health care           12%

Unemployment          12%

 

7.  ON FINES FOR FAILING TO SIGN UP FOR HEALTH INSURANCE

 

Do you support or oppose the provision of the state’s health insurance law

that imposes a fine on people who can afford to buy health insurance for

themselves, but don’t do so?

 

Support    50%  

Oppose     46%

8.  RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK

 

                                     RIGHT DIRECTION   WRONG TRACK

 

             Now                          41%              46%

             September, 2007              41%              41%

             April, 2007                  39%              49%

             November, 2006               33%              58%

             September, 2006              35%              48%

             May, 2006                    34%              49%

             January, 2006                41%              49%

             November, 2005               48%              42%

             September, 2005              48%              39%

             July, 2005                   48%              42%

             May, 2005                    43%              45%

             March, 2005                  46%              39%