State House News Service

January 15, 2008 www.statehousenews.com

MASSACHUSETTS RESIDENTS PREFER CLINTON TO OBAMA AND MCCAIN TO ROMNEY

By Craig Sandler

STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

Reporters and Editors Note: State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky is available all day for comment and analysis at 617-332-5006.

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, JAN. 16, 2007…..Perhaps Deval Patrick should spend more time campaigning in Massachusetts.

Residents here disagree with their current governor in the Democratic presidential primary, and dislike the idea of their previous governor winning the general presidential election, according to the latest State House News Poll.

They are also evenly divided on repeal of the state income tax, and give the governor bad marks on his efforts to control property taxes. But they now believe the economy, not taxes, is the biggest problem facing Massachusetts.

The scientific survey of 400 Massachusetts adults, conducted right after the New Hampshire primary, found Hillary Clinton holding her lead over Barak Obama among likely Democratic voters here, 37-25 percent. Her lead persists despite vigorous and visible campaigning by Patrick for Obama in other states, which has led to a certain amount of grumbling back home.

The horse-race numbers among these likely Democrats, where the margin of error was plus or minus 6.2 percent:

Hillary Clinton 36.7%

Barak Obama 25.4%

John Edwards 14.3%

Dennis Kucinich 1.2%

None/other 7.1%

Don't know 11.2%

If a Republican is to win the White House, Massachusetts residents as a whole would prefer Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain to their former governor, 45-18 percent. The rest of the field and “Undecided” split the remaining 37 percent. Independents here said they’d prefer McCain to Romney by a 47-20 percent margin.

Only those identifying themselves as Republicans would prefer a Romney presidency to a McCain win, and they made up just 11.6 percent of the respondents, reflecting the party’s weakness here.

The poll also found:

--Respondents were split, 49 to 49 percent, on the elimination of the state income tax, a proposal that garnered a surprising 45 percent vote the last time it was on the ballot

--Residents continue to be closely split on casino gambling, but they decidedly believe Patrick won’t be able to provide property tax relief without casino revenue. The governor’s three-casino proposal is bogged down in the House.

--By 4 points, just within the poll’s plus or minus 4.8 percent margin of error, respondents said they support the imposition of fines on people who can afford health insurance, but don’t buy it. The state’s new health insurance law imposes such penalties, being paid for the first time this tax season.

--Residents think Patrick is doing a bad job keeping his pledge to bring property taxes under control. About 67 percent rated his performance on property taxes “below average” or “poor.”

--Patrick receives mixed reviews on his first year as governor, with a few percentage points more respondents rating his performance “below average” or “poor” than rated it “above average” or “excellent.”

Matching surveys in other states, this State House News Poll found residents increasingly concerned about the economy. For the first time in years, when they were given the chance to name the most important issue facing Massachusetts, respondents named the economy most often, as opposed to taxes, health care, or education. In fact, 41 percent identified “the economy” or “jobs” as the most important issue.

Complete results of the poll are available at www.statehousenewspoll.com,

Q’s:

Should Obama spend more time in Mass.?

Romney finding germane to Michigan?

Economy finding?

Surprised by Guliani?

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