State House News Service

February 2, 2009                                                                                                           www.statehousenews.com

IN NEW POLL, RESIDENTS SAY PATRICK SHOULD MAKE NEW PUSH FOR GAMBLING

By Craig Sandler

STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

-- Reporters and Editors Note:  State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky is available for comment and analysis at 617-332-5006.

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, MONDAY, FEB. 2, 2009…..Massachusetts residents would welcome a new effort by Gov. Deval Patrick to bring casino gambling to the Bay State, the new State House News Poll shows – a finding with renewed political punch now that all three major players on Beacon Hill favor expanded gambling.

By a 57 to 38 margin, asked “Do you think Governor Patrick should or should not try again to win passage of legislation legalizing casino gambling in Massachusetts?” residents said he should.  Residents consistently favor legalization of slot machines and casinos here, but in this poll respondents endorsed not just the idea of casinos, but the idea that Patrick should propose them again.

The poll also found residents prefer the state budget to be balanced with program and service cuts, instead of higher taxes – a mood that augurs favorably for re-introduction of new initiatives for increased gaming as a source of revenue.  Asked to pick between higher taxes or cuts in programs and services, 33 percent said taxes and 45 percent chose cuts in services and programs.

Patrick got decent marks in the poll on most phases of his tenure.  His favorability rating has rebounded from the tumble it took during public relations troubles in his first year, but his job rating is “mediocre,” in the words of State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky.  About 41 percent rated Patrick’s performance excellent or above average, while 37 percent said it’s been below average or poor. 

Still, that’s better than the dreadful marks former Speaker Salvatore DiMasi earned from citizens statewide – he garnered a 9.3 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable rating.    As is common with legislative leaders, more than 40 percent of respondents did not recognize his name.  Asked if DiMasi should resign as speaker, 52.5 percent said yes and 17.8 percent said no; DiMasi announced his departure several days after polling was conducted.

Patrick was thwarted by the House last year in his high-profile effort to raise revenue by allowing casinos.  Plans for racetrack slot machines also faltered last year.  This year, he’s spurned the notion he might try again for casinos, but the calculation around that decision shifted dramatically last week when Speaker Robert DeLeo (D-Winthrop), a supporter of expanded gambling, replaced DiMasi, a staunch opponent.

Chervinsky pointed out the bugaboo attending any revived attempt to bring casinos here: the same economic failures driving the state’s huge budget gaps also make the environment much less appealing for casino operators, as consumers curtail their entertainment spending.  The state lottery has seen record reductions in income in the past year, and casinos as close as Twin Rivers in Rhode Island are facing financial difficulties. 

But stalwart pro-gamers such as Rep. Brian Wallace (D-S. Boston) argue that “at some point, this is going to turn,” as Wallace put it, and the state should have its policy change made when the economics for casinos do shift.  And the ascension of DeLeo has unmistakably changed the tone of the discussion on gambling under the Golden Dome, from lethargic to front-burner. 

A few weeks ago, Patrick made his lack of enthusiasm for a retry clear: “I'm not going to file something that isn't going anywhere,” he said, knowing that nothing would go far under DiMasi.  But in the wake of the speakership change, combined with a gambling-tolerant Senate, the administration sounded a more amenable note. 

Patrick’s communications director, Joseph Landolfi said the poll “clearly shows the residents of Massachusetts recognize the potential, the economic and job development potential, of casino gaming.  The governor’s position on gaming was not about gaming per se but always about economic development and job creation.”

Landolfi said neither the poll nor the emergence of DeLeo will cause Patrick to fall over himself getting a new gaming bill in front of the House.  “He’ll be speaking with, and listening to, both the Speaker and the Senate president” about what’s now possible, Landolfi said.  

Wallace said his own gambling bill, backed by the AFL-CIO, will be the main vehicle for moving the issue forward.  “Whether they (the administration) want to piggyback on them is up to them,” he said.

Chervinsky said that casinos aside, “The real message of the poll is they don’t want to pay more in taxes.”  The percentage of residents willing to support higher taxes is falling as the economy worsens, the pollster said.

Other takeaways from the survey:

-- Approximately 68 percent said Patrick has performed about as they expected as governor; 18.3 said his performance has been worse than they expected; 12 percent said it’s been better.

-- About 71 percent of those polled said they believe Patrick when he says he’ll serve out his term and run for re-election.

-- If he does, 48.5 percent of those polled said they’d vote for him again; 30 percent said they’d vote against him and 20 percent said they didn’t know.  (The other 1.5 percent gave no answer.)

Chervinsky said that finding opens the door for a Republican candidate – by a tiny crack.  “To the right candidate and the right campaign, he could be vulnerable, but it would really have to be the right candidate and the right campaign,” Cherinsky said.  A Republican like Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker might be the type who could make the case for making a change: “There’s a clear gap between how people perceive him and how they perceive the job he’s doing.  So a Charlie Baker would argue, ‘Gov. Patrick is a nice guy and I respect him, but when it’s your record vs. my record, it’s not are you a good guy – it’s how does your record compare to mine.’ ”

“To the right candidate and the right campaign, he could be vulnerable, but it would really have to be the right candidate and the right campaign,” Chervinsky said.

Chervinsky supervised the scientific survey of 400 Massachusetts residents, conducted Jan. 21-24.  Results carry a 4.8 percent margin of error plus or minus.

END

02/02/2009