State House News Service

 

July 28, 2005                                                                                                                    www.statehousenews.com

 

WEEKLY ROUNDUP: WEEK OF JULY 25, 2005

 (Note that this analysis replaces the regular Weekly Roundup this week.)

 

By Craig Sandler

STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

 

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, JULY 28, 2005….This was the week it became valid to write: “Romney, who’s not expected to run for re-election.” Because now, no one expects him to.

 

Mitt Romney could certainly still shock everyone – and no doubt delight the Democrats – by announcing he and his anti-Roe position will stand for another term.  But it is now safe to say that the whole spectrum of Massachusetts politics would be stunned, and the latest State House News Poll shows why.

 

Romney adjusted his position on emergency contraception, and while he was at it, abortion, to the same place he already was on embryonic stem cell research: out of synch with Massachusetts voters, but more closely aligned with American voters, and especially with Republican presidential primary voters.

 

On the matter immediately at hand, the emergency contraception bill Romney vetoed Monday, the latest News Service poll showed respondents supporting the bill 54 to 40 percent.  Romney said the measure constitutes a form of abortion, and while “I understand that my views on laws governing abortion set me in the minority in our Commonwealth . . . I will honor the commitment I made during my campaign: While I do not favor abortion, I will not change the state's abortion laws.”

 

That statement was contained in a Boston Globe op-ed piece that put the political community on notice just how far to the right on social issues the governor has decided to shift.  Romney came out against the Roe v. Wade decision, saying each state should have the right to regulate abortion on its own. 

 

The veto and statement came after the polling was conducted July 20-23, but State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky agreed with the virtually unanimous conclusion: “This is a major, major statement as Romney remakes himself into a right-wing conservative with appeal to Republican primary voters nationwide.”

 

Actually, on emergency contraception, Romney may be slightly more conservative than the Massachusetts mainstream even within his own party: “Interestingly, the bill, which was vetoed by Gov. Romney shortly after polling was completed, is supported by Republicans (51 percent) just as much as by Independents (51 percent) and almost as much as by Democrats (62 percent),” Chervinsky’s executive summary of the poll points out. 

 

Chervinsky noted that the Legislature is expected to override Romney’s veto of the bill, which passed by more than two-thirds majorities in each branch.  He said the governor actually might weather his shift in position rather well, in terms of people’s perception of his place in their politics: “The citizens are less likely to take it out on Romney because the Legislature is going to override Romney’s veto, and so people aren’t going to bes directly affected by his position.  Plus, 54-40 – it’s not that huge a spread.”

 

As if to underscore the growing spread between the governor and his current constituents on social issues, participants in the poll were asked about how they’d vote if a referendum were held on the bill recently passed to encourage the stem cell industry in Massachusetts, in part by allowing therapeutic cloning.  Last week, Attorney General Thomas Reilly ruled the matter could not appear on the 2006 ballot because it would deal with “distinctively religious” subject matter.  The poll indicates voters were disinclined to repeal that law anyway, and overwhelmingly disagree with the governor’s position.  By a 59-36 margin, respondents said they’d vote against repealing the law that went on the books over the governor’s veto.

 

Overall mood-of-the-populace numbers stayed reasonably steady, and closely divided.  Participants said the state is “going in the right direction” as opposed to “seriously off on the wrong track” by a margin of 48-42 percent.  That’s a slight increase in “right direction” from May.

 

The governor’s job performance and personal approval both stayed about the same – citizens were split about his performance as governor, with 48 percent rating his job performance excellent or above average; 8 percent as average; and 43 percent as below average.  But his personal favorability was 55 percent, compared to 37 percent of respondents who said they view him unfavorably.

 

Hypothetical matchups in the governor’s race yield little change, as you’d expect in the summer of an off-election year.  Put succinctly: Democrat Deval Patrick’s name recognition is rising slowly and his favorability increased slightly, but the race remains principally a battle between Romney and Reilly, and it’s statistically tied.

 

The poll of 400 Mass. residents has a plus or minus 4.8 percent margin of error.  Complete poll data are available at www.statehousenewspoll.com

 

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