THE STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL
JULY, 2006
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following
are key findings from The State House News Poll, a telephone poll conducted
among 410 adults living in
of 361 registered voters and +/-7.0% for the subset of 193 Democratic primary voters.
The lead findings:
1. PATRICK TAKES LEAD IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RACE AS REILLY PLUMMETS
--Off the strength of his large win at the Democratic convention, Deval Patrick has moved into the lead in a Democratic gubernatorial primary trial heat three-way race against Tom Reilly and Chris Gabrieli, with Patrick receiving 35% vs. 22% for Gabrieli and 19% for Reilly. In general election trial heats pitting each of the three Democrats against Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, Independent Christy Mihos, and Green Rainbow candidate Grace Ross, all three Democrats maintain slight leads.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: PATRICK v GABRIELI v REILLY
Now 35% 22% 19%
May, 2006 15% 25% 37%
March, 2006 21% 8% 43%
GENERAL: HEALEY v REILLY v MIHOS v ROSS HEALEY v PATRICK v MIHOS v ROSS
Now 31% 36% 13% 3% 31% 40% 9% 2%
May, 2006 30% 38% 13% -- 31% 29% 15% --
March, 2006 31% 34% 18% -- 32% 25% 18% --
January, 2006 26% 45% 11% -- 32% 32% 13% --
HEALEY v GABRIELI v MIHOS v ROSS
Now 30% 39% 9% 3%
May, 2006 31% 37% 10% --
March, 2006 36% 21% 18% --
Statewide personal popularity: FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
Healey: Now 41% 29%
May, 2006 40% 30%
March, 2006 36% 22%
January, 2006 40% 22%
November, 2005 33% 30%
September, 2005 36% 21%
Reilly: Now 38% 30%
May, 2006 44% 29%
March, 2006 43% 25%
January, 2006 49% 23%
July, 2005 42% 15%
May, 2005 44% 12%
Patrick: Now 35% 11%
May, 2006 20% 12%
March, 2006 14% 5%
January, 2006 14% 4%
July, 2005 11% 3%
May, 2005 7% 3%
Gabrieli: Now 39% 12%
May, 2006 36% 8%
March, 2006 21% 6%
Mihos: Now 19% 14%
May, 2006 21% 12%
March, 2006 15% 8%
January, 2006 13% 8%
Democratic primary personal popularity: FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
Reilly: Now 44% 26%
May, 2006 52% 23%
March, 2006 53% 17%
January, 2006 56% 18%
Patrick: Now 50% 7%
May, 2006 27% 12%
March, 2006 18% 3%
January, 2006 20% 3%
Gabrieli: Now 46% 10%
May, 2006 47% 6%
March, 2006 29% 5%
2. STRONG OPPOSITION TO OVER-THE-COUNTER NEEDLE/SYRINGE SALES
--By an overwhelming majority of 66%-30%, Massachusetts residents strongly oppose the proposed legislation that would allow the sale of syringes and needles in Massachusetts without a prescription. Lesser-educated respondents and Republicans are most opposed to the bill but there are no other significant demographic differences and no demographic subset yields a majority in favor.
3. MAJORITY FAVORS RAISING DRIVING AGE
--By a small majority of 52%-46%, Massachusetts residents support raising the legal driving age in the Bay State. There is a significant gender gap: men oppose raising the driving age by 53%-45% while women favor it by 58%-38%. Not surprisingly, younger residents oppose the measure while older residents support it.
4.
STRONG CONCERN ABOUT STATE PREPAREDNESS
FOR FLU OUTBREAK
--A majority of state residents, 57%, say they are not very
confident that the state government will be properly prepared to respond should
there be a widespread outbreak of flu, called a pandemic. While 38% are somewhat confident in the
state’s preparedness, only 5% say that they are very confident that the state
will be properly prepared for a flu outbreak.
There are no significant differences among demographic subsets.
5. THE LEGISLATURE IN GENERAL
Job rating: EXC/ABOVE AVE AVERAGE BELOW AVE/POOR
The Legislature: Now 24% 8% 68%
May, 2006 24% 16% 56%
March, 2006 25% 13% 59%
January, 2006 29% 8% 59%
November, 2005 35% 6% 56%
July, 2005 35% 8% 54%
May, 2005 29% 6% 59%
March, 2005 34% 11% 48%
6. MASSACHUSETTS IN GENERAL
--Most important problem facing Massachusetts today:
NOW JANUARY, 2006 JULY, 2005 MAY, 2005 MARCH, 2005
Taxes 19% 15% 15% 16% 14%
Education 14% 15% 12% 12% 19%
Health Care 7% 13% 8% 7% 5%