State House News Service

July 10, 2006 www.statehousenews.com

SHN POLL: PATRICK THE FRONT RUNNER, VOTERS AGREE WITH GOV ON NEEDLE SALES

By Craig Sandler

STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, JULY 10, 2006…..Deval Patrick has become the clear front runner for the Democratic nomination for governor, and Kerry Healey would lose to any of the three Democrats if the election were held today, according to the latest State House News Poll.

The scientific phone survey of 410 Massachusetts adults was conducted June 28-30 and carries the following margins of error: plus or minus 4.7 percent for the whole group, plus or minus 5.1 for the subgroup who said they are registered voters; and 7 percent among those saying they are likely to vote in the Democratic primary.

Among that latter group, the outstanding feature is how far Thomas Reilly has fallen. Since March, when Patrick polled 21 percent, Attorney General Thomas Reilly has dropped from 43 percent to 19 percent, with his support absorbed both by Patrick and latecomer Christopher Gabrieli.

Those who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary preferred Patrick by 35 percent to Gabrieli’s 22 percent and Reilly’s 19 percent. This was the first major statewide poll to show Reilly in third place.

This poll confirms the findings of a recent Channel 7/Suffolk University poll showing Reilly dropping fast and Patrick the front runner. One poll alone is not a good barometer, but when multiple surveys show similar results, sheer mathematics indicates the trend being detected is a real one.

All three Democrats defeated Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey by small but noticeable margins in hypothetical matchups, with Patrick running the strongest: 40 percent to 31 percent for Healey; Reilly ran the weakest, with 36 percent to 31 percent for Healey.

On issues, the administration garnered a rare vote of confidence on a social issue.

The separation between Gov. Mitt Romney from Massachusetts voters – and often, his own lieutenant governor – has been striking, but on the question of clean needle sales, he finds himself in sync with the respondents of the survey, 66 percent of whom said needles and syringes should not be made available for sale without a prescription. Romney vetoed a bill legalizing that practice last week.

On other issue questions:

-- Respondents were split on whether the state’s driving age should be increased, with a percentage within the margin of error favoring the idea.

-- About 66 percent of those asked said it’s “important” or “somewhat important” to them that the governor and legislative majority represent different parties. A third said it’s not important.

-- The group polled split itself almost exactly into three when respondents were asked to describe themselves as “liberal,” “moderate,” or “conservative.”

-- About 57 percent said they’re not confident the state will be ready to respond adequately if and when an influenza pandemic strikes.

-- Asked what was the most important issue facing Massachusetts today, respondents listed “taxes” first, followed by education, health care and the economy. Surprisingly, only about three percent said immigration or gas or energy prices are the most important question.

State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky can be reached at 617-527-3420. Full data and results are available at www.statehousenewspoll.com.

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