TROUBLE FOR HEALEY, SUPPORT FOR ILLEGALS IN NEW SHNS POLL

By Craig Sandler
STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, NOV. 23, 2005….Warning bells sounded for Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey in the latest State House News Poll, a scientific survey of 400 Massachusetts residents that also found a majority opposed to Healey and Gov. Mitt Romney on in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants.

The poll revealed favorable/unfavorable numbers for Healey that State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky said constitute a "horrible" situation as she prepares to run for governor should Romney forgo a re-election bid.

Respondents gave overwhelming support to a proposed payroll tax on businesses that fail to provide health insurance, though Chervinsky cautioned that by and large, polls tend to exaggerate support for business taxes somewhat.

On the question of in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants, respondents were asked , "Would you support or oppose legislation allowing children brought into the country illegally to pay in-state tuition rates at public colleges and universities as long as they have lived in Massachusetts for the last three years and have graduated from a state high school and have signed a sworn affidavit that they are applying for U.S. citizenship?" Exactly 54 percent said they'd support the proposal; 43 percent said they were opposed.

Asked what message that sent to legislators and their leadership, Chervinsky replied: "Pass the bill - or at least if they do pass the bill, they can do it with some confidence that the political price isn't going to be as steep as is sometimes represented. What they'd be doing is doing something the public supports, and passing the buck to the Romney administration." Advocates for the tuition proposal say they have majority support in the House, but not the two-thirds margin needed to override a near-certain Romney veto.

Republicans in the poll opposed the idea; Democrats and independents supported it.

"I think that the state views it as an education issue," Chervinsky said. "People know these illegals aren't going to get thrown out of the country, so they might as well be educated, is the thinking. Romney got no traction out of it because the state supports the bill, and I think Healey got hurt by it because again, the state seems to see it as an education issue."

The last comment referred to two phenomena: Romney was totally unsuccessful electing more Republicans to the Legislature in 2002, despite a concerted, expensive, high-profile effort to do so. Part of that campaign was widespread use of the illegal-immigrant tuition issue against lawmakers who'd voted in favor of the proposal. Chervinsky said the poll results indicate one reason why the GOP campaign was ineffective.

Chervinsky was also referring to a new, and for the Republicans, troubling trend: after months in which his poll performance remain solid even as he campaigned with a message often critical of his home state, Romney's numbers have started to slide, and Healey's are going with his. The governor's favorability rating took the first significant drop since the State House News Poll began last March - to 47 percent, the first time he's been below 50. The governor's job rating also crossed the midpoint line in the negative direction: 42percent gave him an "above average" or "excellent," compared to 53 percent who labeled his job performance as "below average" or "poor.

Chervinsky said the real political problem for Healey could be indicated by her favorable/unfavorable reading, with 32 percent saying they have a favorable or extremely favorable opinion of her and 33 percent saying their view is unfavorable or extremely so. Another area of concern: some 37 percent of respondents said they have no opinion or haven't heard of the lieutenant governor, though she's been working hard to raise her name recognition.

"If I'm Kerry Healey, I'm seriously, seriously concerned," said Chervinsky, who's conducted polls for media and politicians for 25 years. "She has as many people who view her unfavorably as favorably. That's horrible for an incumbent running for office. That should be 60/30."

The immigrant-tuition issue, on which Healey took a controversial stand with her "let them go to private schools" comment, is only part of the challenging picture for the lieutenant governor, Chervinsky said. "That may be part of it, but she's also linked to Romney, and as people desert Romney, that's going to hurt her. Democrats really don't like him, and the independents now are deserting him."

As always, the pollster said, one poll by itself is not a terribly reliable indicator of political reality; polls measure movement, not position. Still, "I think this was inevitable," said Chervinsky, who predicted that if Romney does abandon the governorship to seek the Republican presidential nomination as a social conservative, "His numbers are going to collapse. They held for a long time while he was bashing Massachusetts, but no more."

The effect on Healey will be significant, Chervinsky said, and she's already facing disturbing signal: "Her favorability among Republicans is 50 percent. There's a lot of Republicans who are not supportive. Maybe in the end there will be, but she needs it to be 80 . . . Romney's is 83."

Healey also loses by significant margins in hypothetical matchups against Deval Patrick and Thomas Reilly, Healey's highest-profile Democratic foes. Against Reilly, "if the vote were held today," she would lose 57 to 25 percent, respondents said. "The Democrats do better in all the races," Chervinsky said. "This all bodes well for the Democrats."

The notion of raising taxes on businesses who can afford to provide health coverage, but don't, earned overwhelming support: 66 to 29 percent. But Chervinsky cautioned: "Citizens almost always embrace business taxes without realizing the direct impact that has on them personally. One of the problems with sampling public opinion is that people are inclined to say, 'Sure go ahead, tax 'em,' without taking into account all the implications. The citizenry is a little unrealistic."

On slot machines, the poll found 49 percent in favor of allowing race tracks to install slot machines, 45.5 percent against. "The public is really split," Chervinsky said. "Everybody has an opinion on this and they're evenly split. They're looking to the leadership to make a decision on this."

Of course, that leadership is very noticeable itself, with the Senate and its president already having voted by a veto-proof margin to approve slot machines, while the House seems disinclined to follow suit. "They could let it die and there will not be any consternation in the state really. There will be some people obviously who will be very concerned, in the industry, but not in the state generally," he said.

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(EDITOR'S NOTE: The SHNS Poll story replaces the Weekly Roundup this week.)