THE STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL

                        NOVEMBER, 2006

                       EXECUTIVE SUMMARY       

 

     The following are key findings from The State House News Poll, a telephone poll conducted among 401 adults living in Massachusetts by KRC/Communications Research for The State House News Service. The poll was conducted November 1-2, 2006, using standard random-digit-dialing techniques, and carries an overall margin of error of +/-4.8%, with a margin of error of +/-5.0% for the subset of 358 registered voters.

 

The lead findings:

 

1.  PATRICK CRUISES TOWARD A LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION AS

    THE FIGHT OVER WINE SALES IN FOOD STORES GOES DOWN TO THE WIRE

 

--Deval Patrick continues to maintain the large lead that he took following his resounding win in the Democratic party primary.  In a trial heat four-way race against Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, Independent Christy Mihos, and Green Rainbow candidate Grace Ross, Patrick is ahead in all regions of the state and among all demographic subgroups analyzed, buoyed by his strong favorable/unfavorable ratings compared to Healey’s ratings, which are those of an unelectable candidate.   

 

FOR GOVERNOR:  HEALEY v PATRICK v MIHOS v ROSS

 

Now              27%      51%      8%      2%

September, 2006  30%      43%      7%      1%

July, 2006       31%      40%      9%      2%

May, 2006        31%      29%     15%      --

March, 2006      32%      25%     18%      --

January, 2006    32%      32%     13%      --

 

Statewide personal popularity:            FAVORABLE     UNFAVORABLE

 

Healey:   Now                                32%            52%

          September, 2006                    42%            31%

          July, 2006                         41%            29%

          May, 2006                          40%            30%

          March, 2006                        36%            22%

          January, 2006                      40%            22%

          November, 2005                     33%            30%

          September, 2005                    36%            21%

Patrick:  Now                                56%            28%

          September, 2006                    47%            12%

          July, 2006                         35%            11%

          May, 2006                          20%            12%

          March, 2006                        14%             5%

          January, 2006                      14%             4%

          July, 2005                         11%             3%

          May, 2005                           7%             3%

 

--While the negative ads run by the Healey campaign have driven up Patrick’s unfavorable rating, they’re partially responsible for the increase in Healey’s unfavorable rating as well.  Overall, 44% of likely voters say the ads made them less likely to vote for Healey, while 11% say the ads made them more likely to vote for her.

--Undoubtedly boosted by late ads run by opponents of wine sales in food stores that feature law enforcement officials, Question 1 is now too close to call, in part due to huge gender and education gaps:

 

Q. 1    Total  Men  Women  HS    Col   PG  

 

Support 47.2% 54.8% 40.5% 33.7% 51.9% 54.3% 

 

Oppose  49.1% 40.3% 56.9% 62.4% 45.1% 40.7%

 

 

2.  MASSACHUSETTS TO ROMNEY: GOODBYE & GOOD RIDDANCE

 

--Not surprisingly, Massachusetts voters view outgoing Gov. Mitt Romney in the same negative light as his lieutenant governor.  In fact, when Romney’s name is substituted for Healey’s in a gubernatorial trial heat, Romney does just as poorly against Patrick as does Healey:

 

FOR GOVERNOR:  ROMNEY v PATRICK v MIHOS v ROSS

 

                 29%      50%      8%      3%

 

--When asked about the impact on Healey’s candidacy of Romney’s performance as governor during the campaign, 6% said it made them more likely to vote for her while 27% said it made them less likely to vote for her.

 

Statewide personal popularity:            FAVORABLE     UNFAVORABLE

 

Romney:   Now                                37%            52%

          March, 2006                        53%            37%

          January, 2006                      53%            39%

          November, 2005                     47%            43%

          September, 2005                    54%            37%

          July, 2005                         55%            37%

          May, 2005                          52%            34%

          March, 2005                        55%            41%

 

Job rating:            EXC/ABOVE AVE       AVERAGE     BELOW AVE/POOR

 

Mitt Romney: Now             35%             10%            54%

             January, 2006   45%              7%            47%

             November, 2005  42%              5%            53%

             September, 2005 47%              8%            44%

             July, 2005      48%              8%            43%

             May, 2005       44%              5%            49%

             March, 2005     46%              9%            44%

 

--Romney and the GOP take the heat when voters are asked “who on Beacon Hill do you think should receive more of the blame for the problems with the Big Dig, (ROTATE): the Republicans or Democrats?”  Fully 38% cite the Republicans, while 20% cite the Democrats and another 20% say both political parties are equally to blame.

3.  GAY MARRIAGE

 

--When asked how they would vote if a question appeared on the ballot that would prohibit marriage between two men or two women, the vast majority of 63% said they would vote against such a question, while only 31% said they would support it.  Yet when asked whether the legislature should approve placing the question on the ballot, 56% thought that the legislature should do so, while 40% did not, the implication being that, even though voters express support for gay marriage, they would also like the opportunity to vote on it.

     

4.  MASSACHUSETTS IN GENERAL

 

--Continuing a trend first noticed in January, the plurality of respondents believes that the state is seriously off on the wrong track, with the response percentages higher now than they have ever been:

 

                                     RIGHT DIRECTION   WRONG TRACK

 

             Now                          33%              58%

             September, 2006              35%              48%

             May, 2006                    34%              49%

             January, 2006                41%              49%

             November, 2005               48%              42%

             September, 2005              48%              39%

             July, 2005                   48%              42%

             May, 2005                    43%              45%

             March, 2005                  46%              39%

 

--Most important issue:

 

            NOW JULY, 2006 JANUARY, 2006 JULY, 2005 MAY, 2005 MARCH, 2005

 

Taxes       14%     19%         15%          15%       16%        14%           

Education   14%     14%         15%          12%       12%        19%

 

--Top 2 priorities for incoming governor to address:

 

Education            38%

Taxes                30%

Jobs & the economy   24%

Health care          13%

Big Dig              12%

Crime                11%