State House News Service

November 5, 2006                                                                                                                        www.statehousenews.com

Patrick has huge lead, Q1 very close, gay marriage wins big in new poll

By Craig Sandler

STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, NOV. 5, 2006…. Kerry Healey lost ground during the general election, leaving Deval Patrick poised to become the first Democratic Massachusetts governor in 16 years, the last State House News Poll of the year indicates.

The poll results indicated that Question One, asking about wine sales in grocery stores, is very close, and that while voters believe the Legislature should allow a question prohibiting gay marriage on the ballot, they oppose the ban, 63-31 percent.

Immediately after the election, the Legislature will meet to decide if a question changing the constitution to outlaw single-sex gay marriage should go to the next step in the process of placing it before voters.

About 56 percent of respondents said the Legislature should advance the question – but 63 percent said they’ll vote against a ban if and when it does appear, compared to 31 percent who said they’ll vote for it.

The wine-sales question is within the poll's margin of error, with less than 4 percent of responsdents saying they don't know how they vote. The "no" column held a slight edge, 49-47 percent, but again, well within the margin of error.

Compared to the September poll, Healey lost three points while Patrick picked up eight, and the Democrat now leads Healey 51 to 27 percent in a poll taken Nov. 1-2, carrying a 5 percent margin of error among respondents who said they’re registered voters.

Four times as many people said they were less likely to vote for Healey as a result of her negative campaign ads as said the ads would make them more likely to vote for her.  Only 11 percent said the ads “worked,” i.e., made them more likely to prefer Healey, while 44 percent said seeing the ads made it less likely they’d vote for Healey.

If these results, which align with the other polls taken over the last month, Healey will be trounced and the blame game will commence among Republicans here, assisted by the punditry.  News Service pollster Gerry Chervinsky said the Republican’s shouldn’t be blamed for their strategy, of trying to draw sharp contrasts with their Democratic foe – but he said the numbers suggest the tactics have not at all accomplished the strategic goal.

”They absolutely had to go negative, Chervinsky said.  “That was correct.  That was her only chance.  The problem really seems to be that the ads apparently went too far and didn’t do what the Healey people wanted.  Yes, they were successful in increasing Patrick’s unfavorables - but Healy’s went up even more.”  

While much is being much of the seeming missteps of Healey’s campaign advisors, who appear to have found ways to get her numbers moving in the wrong direction, one metric in the poll suggests any Republican would have a hard time right now.

Mitt Romney’s name was substituted for Healey’s in one question, and respondents said that if it were Romney vs. Patrick on Nov. 7, they’d prefer Patrick to Romney, 50 percent to 29 percent.

The poll indicates that the people going to the polls Tuesday overwhelmingly feel Massachusetts is heading the wrong way.  About 58 percent said the state is “seriously off on the wrong track,” with 33 percent saying it’s headed in the right direction.

Taxes and education were the issues most voters said are the most important to them as they head to the polls.  Each issue got about 19 percent.   No other issue scored in double digits; the economy got 9 percent.  Healey’s second major issue after taxes, was the most important issue for only 2.8 percent of those who responded.

Both candidates have tried to paint themselves as change agents, while accusing the other person of representing more of the same.  But Patrick will end the race as the far more favorably-viewed candidate: more than half the respondents (55 percent) have a positive view of Patrick, and more than half (52 percent) view Healey unfavorably.

Not surprisingly, Healey is not at all helped by her association with Mitt Romney.  About 54 percent of the respondents said Romney’s doing a poor or below average job as governor, and overall,

The poll shows a significant gender gap – across gender lines.   Both men and women prefer Patrick, but he draws 12 percent better among women than men, while Healey scores 15 percent higher among men than women.