State House News Poll

 

 

STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL: GAY MARRIAGE BAN WOULD LOSE IF VOTE WERE HELD TODAY

(The State House News Poll story takes the place of the Weekly Roundup this week.)

 

By Craig Sandler

STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE

 

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, SEPT. 22, 2005….Anti-gay marriage organizers face an uphill struggle – but not a steep one – as they work to convince Massachusetts voters to make single-sex wedlock illegal again, according to the latest State House News Poll.

 

The survey of 400 Massachusetts residents, conducted last week, found 51.9 percent opposed to the ban on gay marriage proposed for the 2008 ballot and certified by Attorney General Thomas Reilly.  42.6 percent of respondents said they supported the ban.  The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percent.  Every question and every result is available at www.statehousenewspoll.com.

 

Supporters of the “one man-one woman” constitutional amendment plan a major signature-gathering drive organized by socially conservative churches the first weekend of October.  State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky said based on this first poll result since the question was certified, that signature push will be the start of a “bitter,” three-year fight over the hot-button issue.

 

“If that indeed is the wording, and the question goes forward, I see a bitter fight,” Chervinsky said.  “But remember, these ballot questions are hard to poll.  It’s the world of the hidden vote, where people want to tell you the politically correct thing.  But when they get into the voting booth and pull the shades, they go – ‘hmmm, maybe I won’t vote the way they think I should.’”  That could indicate a hidden vote in favor of the gay-marriage ban, Chervinsky cautioned.

 

Organizers of the campaign to amend the Constitution and ban gay marriage have 60 days to collect the 65,825 signatures needed statewide to keep the question moving forward toward the 2008 ballot.

 

Through a spokeswoman, Massachusetts Family Institute President Kris Mineau declined to comment on the poll. 

Arlene Issacson, co-chair of the Massachusetts Gay and Lesbian Political Caucus, expressed muted optimism.  “On the one hand, this is good news and not surprising at all,” Issacson said.  “We have found consistently that attitudes about same-sex marriage are improving and getting more supportive with every passing month.  We fully expect that increase in support to continue.  However, we don’t for one second delude ourselves that that an increase in support would translate into our winning this campaign.  “We know that younger voters support us, but those are the people who don’t vote in as many numbers.”

 

Respondents were asked as well about some of the questions that may appear on the ballot next year if enough signatures are gathered:

 

--Those questioned were split almost exactly evenly – 46.2 percent in favor to 46.7 percent opposed – on an initiative that would order the governor to call Massachusetts National Guard troops home from Iraq.

--Though it contains a sizeable tax hike – 60 cents a pack on cigarettes and a new payroll levy on employers – a question that would expand health coverage in Massachusetts by underwriting insurance with the new tax revenue won a wide margin of support, 62.1 to 33 percent.

--Respondents supported an initiative legalizing the sale of wine in food stores, 76.4 – 22.3 percent.

 

Chervinsky said the biggest surprise in the ballot-question queries was the closeness of the Iraq question.  “I really expected there was going to be a majority in presumably liberal Massachusetts that wanted the governor to pull our people out now,” Chervinsky said.  The poll found a significant gender gap: “It’s women who want the troops to come home, but the men – they don’t want us to come home” ahead of a general pullout of Iraq, he said.

 

With political attention now turning to Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey’s strength and viability as a gubernatorial contender, the survey included hypothetical matchups of the lieutenant governor against the most likely Democratic nominees. 

The results brought no great cause for concern on the part of Kerry’s camp, but no basis for excessive confidence, either.

 

Healey lost to two out of three of the most likely Democratic candidates, leading Deval Patrick by 35-31 percent.  But the hypothetical defeats were by margins one would expect for a candidate about whom many people haven’t formed an impression, matched up against known quantities.  “The election is over a year away, and we have not seen the amount of mass media advertising we will later on,” Chervinsky said..  The candidates are campaigning to their own parties so far.”

 

Of course, political veterans are aware that the most important numbers at this point in a campaign have dollar signs in front of them, and Healey has captured attention over the past few months for a surprisingly strong showing in the fund-raising department, bolstered by contributions from her husband Sean.

 

 ^Z