THE STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL

                        SEPTEMBER, 2006

                       EXECUTIVE SUMMARY       

 

     The following are key findings from The State House News Poll, a telephone poll conducted among 401 adults living in Massachusetts by KRC/Communications Research for The State House News Service. The poll was conducted from September 7-10, 2006, using standard random-digit-dialing techniques, and carries an overall margin of error of +/-4.7%, with a margin of error of +/-5.0% for the subset of 359 registered voters and +/-6.8% for the subset of 201 Democratic primary voters.

 

The lead findings:

 

1.  PATRICK MAINTAINS LEAD IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RACE

 

--Deval Patrick continues to maintain the Democratic gubernatorial primary lead that he took following his resounding win at the party’s state convention.  In a  trial heat three-way race against Tom Reilly and Chris Gabrieli, Patrick receives 36% vs. 26% for Gabrieli and 19% for Reilly, and that lead widens to 38% for Patrick, 23% for Gabrieli, and 16% for Reilly among a more tightly screened “definite voter” subset.  In general election trial heats pitting each of the three Democrats against Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, Independent Christy Mihos, and Green Rainbow candidate Grace Ross, all three Democrats maintain leads, with Gabrieli’s margin being the greatest.

 

DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY:          PATRICK v GABRIELI v REILLY

 

                   Now                       36%       26%       19%

                   July, 2006                35%       22%       19%

                   May, 2006                 15%       25%       37%        

                   March, 2006               21%        8%       43%      

 

GENERAL:       HEALEY v REILLY v MIHOS v ROSS    HEALEY v PATRICK v MIHOS v ROSS

 

Now              30%      38%      9%     3%         30%      43%      7%     1%

July, 2006       31%      36%     13%     3%         31%      40%      9%     2%

May, 2006        30%      38%     13%     --         31%      29%      15%   --

March, 2006      31%      34%     18%     --         32%      25%      18%   --

January, 2006    26%      45%     11%     --         32%      32%      13%   --

 

               HEALEY v GABRIELI v MIHOS v ROSS

          

Now              26%       47%       7%     2%

July, 2006       30%       39%       9%     3%

May, 2006        31%       37%      10%     --

March, 2006      36%       21%      18%     --

 

--The Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary remains unfocused, with half of the electorate still undecided:

 

DEMOCRATIC LT. GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY:     GOLDBERG v MURRAY v SILBERT  UNDECIDED

 

                   All voters                18%       15%       10%      53%

                   “Definite” voters         21%       19%       12%      46%  


Statewide personal popularity:            FAVORABLE     UNFAVORABLE

 

Healey:   Now                                42%            31%

          July, 2006                         41%            29%

          May, 2006                          40%            30%

          March, 2006                        36%            22%

          January, 2006                      40%            22%

          November, 2005                     33%            30%

          September, 2005                    36%            21%

Reilly:   Now                                39%            34%

          July, 2006                         38%            30%

          May, 2006                          44%            29%

          March, 2006                        43%            25%

          January, 2006                      49%            23%

          July, 2005                         42%            15%           

          May, 2005                          44%            12%

Patrick:  Now                                47%            12%

          July, 2006                         35%            11%

          May, 2006                          20%            12%

          March, 2006                        14%             5%

          January, 2006                      14%             4%

          July, 2005                         11%             3%

          May, 2005                           7%             3%

Gabrieli: Now                                49%            14%

          July, 2006                         39%            12%

          May, 2006                          36%             8%

          March, 2006                        21%             6%

Mihos:    Now                                16%            14%

          July, 2006                         19%            14%

          May, 2006                          21%            12%

          March, 2006                        15%             8%

          January, 2006                      13%             8%

 

Democratic primary personal popularity:   FAVORABLE     UNFAVORABLE

 

Reilly:   Now                                49%            30%

          July, 2006                         44%            26%

          May, 2006                          52%            23%

          March, 2006                        53%            17%

          January, 2006                      56%            18%

Patrick:  Now                                63%             8%

          July, 2006                         50%             7%

          May, 2006                          27%            12%

          March, 2006                        18%             3%

          January, 2006                      20%             3%

Gabrieli: Now                                61%            11%

          July, 2006                         46%            10%

          May, 2006                          47%             6%

          March, 2006                        29%             5%

2. BIG DIG CRISIS RESPONSE A PLUS FOR ROMNEY BUT A SHARP NEGATIVE FOR REILLY

 

--When asked to rate the performance of both Governor Mitt Romney and Attorney General Tom Reilly in terms of how they have each handled the Big Dig crisis, a narrow majority gives Romney “excellent” or “good” ratings, while Reilly rates “not so good” or “poor” by a wide margin:

 

BIG DIG CRISIS PERFORMANCE:                 ROMNEY         REILLY

 

Excellent                                    14%             3%

Good                                         39%            31%

Not So Good                                  25%            31%

Poor                                         19%            24%

 

3. IRAQ TROOP REMOVAL

 

--As when we first asked this question one year ago, Massachusetts voters are split on a potential ballot question that, if approved, would require the Governor to take all necessary steps under existing laws and issue all necessary orders to bring about the immediate withdrawal from Iraq of all Massachusetts National Guard troops. In September, 2005, 46.7% opposed and 46.2% supported this question. The stark gender party differences that were apparent then remain obvious now: 

  

Now     Total  Men  Women  Dem   Ind  GOP  

 

Support 48.8% 39.6% 57.4% 67.8% 41.7% 23.3% 

 

Oppose  43.4% 55.2% 32.4% 26.3% 48.5% 70.0%

 

4.  CONCERNS ABOUT SECURITY IN MASSACHUSETTS

 

--While 46% of Massachusetts residents say they believe that Massachusetts officials have taken the right steps to improve security in the Bay State in the five years since the terrorist attacks on America, 43% say that they do not think enough has been done.  Only 4% think that too much has been done to make Massachusetts secure.

 

5.    MASSACHUSETTS IN GENERAL

 

--Continuing a trend first noticed in January, the plurality of respondents believes that the state is seriously off on the wrong track, with the response percentages almost identical to what they were in May:

 

                                     RIGHT DIRECTION   WRONG TRACK

 

             Now                          35%              48%

             May, 2006                    34%              49%

             January, 2006                41%              49%

             November, 2005               48%              42%

             September, 2005              48%              39%

             July, 2005                   48%              42%

             May, 2005                    43%              45%

             March, 2005                  46%              39%