PATRICK FAVORED IN LATEST STATE HOUSE NEWS POLL

Deval Patrick, an undeclared, under-funded unknown at this time last year, heads into the final week of the Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign as the solid leader, according to the latest State House News Poll. The survey of 400 Massachusetts residents, 201 of whom said they’re likely to vote in the Democratic primary, shows:

-- Patrick 36 percent, Gabrieli 26 percent, Reilly 19 percent;

-- Not too much movement from the SHN July poll. Both Gabrieli and Patrick moved up a bit, drawing from “No Opinion.” Reilly showed no change at all. He’s dropped 24 points since the March SHN poll, which had him leading the pack;

-- All three candidates beating Kerry Healey by wide margins;

-- Christy Mihos falling into single digits, and Green-Rainbow candidate Grace Ross with 2 percent;

-- Gov.Romney gets good marks for his handling of the Big Dig (52 percent positive), while respondents mostly give Reilly poor marks for the way he responded to the crisis (54 percent negative).

Warning of a fluid race, and reasonably big margin of error among the likely Democratic primary voters polled, State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky nonetheless looked at past SHNPolls and other surverys coming out and said: "Patrick is in the lead, and Reilly is unlikely to win. Turnout will be absolutely crucial; if a traditional Democratic base makes up a substantial proportion of the electorate next week, Patrick will win. But if Gabrieli can pull a draw out a large contingent of independents out, he's definitely got a shot at it." Of Reilly's seeming failure to gain ground, Chervinsky said: "Clearly, the people in our poll find the Attorney General's response to the Big Dig lacking."